“What made the war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta.” – Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War The evolution of the battlefield in Ukraine goes towards an uncrewed battlefield. Soon, maybe aroun…
Kategoriarkiv: Russia
Strategic Stability at the Abyss: The Post–New START Nuclear Landscape – (“85 seconds before midnight”)
On 5 February 2026, the New START treaty expired. For the first time since SALT I negotiations began in 1969, no binding agreement constrains the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia—states that together hold roughly 90 per cent o…
How software modifications affects drone warfare – The Russian example
In previous articles, I have covered how Ukrainian forces have utilised and adapted open-source applications and commercially available products (e g, FPV drones). However, developments on the Russian side of the war have not been covered to the same e…
Nothing new on the Eastern Front
It used to be a war between armies, now it is a war of the people. War used to end by defeating the enemy’s army, now war ends by defeating the enemy’s people. None of us knew that before this war and we had to learn it for the first time… The military…
The Eye of Kreml: The sphere of coercive influence and hybrid warfare
“The Eye was rimmed with fire, but was itself glazed, yellow as a cat’s, watchful and intent, and the black slit of its pupil opened on a pit, a window into nothing.” The Fellowship of the Ring, J.R.R. Tolkien In J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings,…
The International Military Support to Ukraine – the US Factor
International support for Ukraine has reached record levels in 2025, with according to Al Jazeera, over €309 billion in total aid from 41 countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Sweden stands out as one of the most generous donor…
The International Military Support to Ukraine – the US Factor
International support for Ukraine has reached record levels in 2025, with according to Al Jazeera, over €309 billion in total aid from 41 countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Sweden stands out as one of the most generous donor…
The Global Shadow Fleet: Circumventing the tools of Geoeconomics
“Russia’s shadow fleet represents a dangerous new dimension of geopolitical competition, one that uses maritime ambiguity to quietly weaken adversaries.” Varun Venkatesh The architecture of global power is undergoing a structural transformation. The tr…
From Molotov–Ribbentrop to the Sino-Soviet Schism and Today’s Triangular Rivalry
Great-power alliances rarely rest on genuine friendship or shared convictions; Instead, they reflect shifting calculations of interest and threat, knitting together unlikely partners when circumstances demand and unraveling alliances once their utility…
Shall We Go Forward Together? Of Deals and Red Lines
Lennart Meri Lecture given by Constanze Stelzenmüller on 17 May 2025 at the Lennart Meri Conference 2025 in Tallinn. Dear President Karis, Dear present and former presidents, prime ministers, ministers, and ambassadors (I think that covers the waterfr…
The Shifting Sands of Global Perception: America’s Declining Soft Power and China’s Rising Influence
Recent polling data reveals a profound shift in global perceptions of major powers, with the United States experiencing a dramatic decline in international standing while China gains unprecedented global favor. The 2025 Democracy Perception Index, surv…
Reflections/conclusions after a seminar on the topic ”US interests and priorities?”
On 13 May, the Security Policy Section (VI) of the Academy arranged an on-line seminar aimed at providing a comprehensive and realistic picture of US strategic interests and priorities in relation to Europe and its northern part. The seminar was the se…
Russian Reactions to the US and Ukraine’s Agreement on Minerals and new American Arms Deliveries
On May 1, 2025, an agreement was signed between the USA and Ukraine regarding mineral resources, while the US administration approved arms sales to Kyiv worth 50 million dollars. These two events elicited a multifaceted and predictably negative reactio…
Reforging European Deterrence: Plurilateralism and ‘Coalitions of the Willing’
Europe faces a collective action problem. There is growing recognition in Europe that the Euro-Atlantic community is confronted with an existential security threat from Russia – one which may last a generation or more and which could result in armed co…
Europe Must Urgently Prepare to Deter Russia Without Large-Scale US Support
NATO’s European members must ramp up investment in ammunition production and focus military training and force structures against key mission sets to credibly deter Russia from exploiting a clash between the US and China in the late 2020s as an opportu…
A Primer on Security Guarantees in the Context of the Russian war against Ukraine War and Implications for NATO, the EU and Sweden
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has sparked complex debates about security arrangements, international guarantees, and the future of European defense cooperation. This primer touches briefly on the current military balance, potential security framework…
Hostomel 2022
“Sedan det ryska angreppet på Ukraina 2022 har det svenska försvars- och säkerhetspolitiska läget fundamentalt förändrats. Försvarsmakten och armén måste därför snarast utvecklas och transformeras för att anpassas till denna nya kontext.” – Major-Gener…
The European Union in the ‘Brooding Shadow of War’
‘The state among states, it is often said, conducts its affairs in the brooding shadow of violence. Because some states may at any time use force, all states must be prepared to do so – or live at the mercy of their militarily more vigorous neighbours….
The Syrian revolution, Phase 2: Irael and Turkey seizes the opportunity
Perhaps it can be debated whether “revolution” is a useful description of recent days’ astonishing events in crisis-ridden Syria, after all these years of devastating warfare, but regardless of label it is clear to everyone that rarely in the history o…
Unmanned systems in Kursk – Shaping the Battlespace and denying the enemy access
The Ukrainian offensive into Kursk Oblast has taken many by surprise, especially the Russians. Not only because the operation was daring but also because it may have shown that it is still possible to surprise an adversary on an otherwise transparent b…